Torrey Pines is hosting the Farmers Insurance Open this week and we’ve got our PGA Tour expert picks and best odds for this early-starting week of golf.
We’re staying in California this week after last week’s American Express and now heading to a more famous course with Torrey Pines hosting the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open. And now the question is can anyone stop Jon Rahm, a former winner here and US Open champion. here too, that he is coming off two wins in two starts for 2023.
Rahm made us big money last week in our PGA Tour Expert Predictions, as we again put him in the Top 5 with highest odds and also won a most money match with Tom Kim vs. Will Zalatoris. Brian Harman missed the cut instead of finishing in the Top 10, Patrick Cantlay played well but didn’t win, and Emiliano Grillo was a bad read on my part. We were slightly up after all that (+0.26U) but were still down a little over a unit this week.
Now let’s go ahead and get paid as we dive into our PGA Tour expert picks for the Torrey Pines Farmers Insurance Open.
Note : All odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. For more predictions and tips, check out BetSided.
Golf betting record in 2023 thanks to AmEx: 5-8-1, -1,014 units (0-3 in outright bets, 0.5 units bet)
Unique record in 2023: $333,387.22 (Brian Harman taken from Sony, $0)
PGA Tour Experts’ Choice for the Farmers Insurance Open: Winner, Top 10, Unique and Unrepeatable.
The 10 best chosen for the Farmers Insurance Open: Max Homa (+260)
In fact, it was quite surprising to see Max Homa miss the cut at Farmers last year after finishing in the Top 20 twice in a row the previous two years. But after a hiatus since he finished T3 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the young Californian is back in his home state and has the game to make some noise this week. Thanks to his improved short game, I think he sits comfortably in the Top 10.
Pick to win Farmers Insurance Open (0.5 units): Xander Schauffele (+1100)
Xander Schauffele was something of an enigma on this pitch, as it is his hometown and a venue that should suit his all-around game. However, he always missed the cuts. He’s been breaking through of late, though, with three Top 35 finishes in his last three races, including a second-place finish in 2021. After finishing T3 at AmEx last week, I think it’s time the San Diego/La guy Jolla succeeds and lifts the trophy to Torrey Pines.
Unique Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open: Jason Day
I tend to be wary of Jason Day due to his injury issues and, frankly, inconsistent form. That worries me less when it comes to Torrey Pines, where he’s finished in the Top 5 three times in his last five starts, as well as another Top 20 finisher in that span. Again, I’m trying to be more conservative in early 2023 with One and Done, and this week I’m picking Day to cash out a nice amount.
Picks and Best Bets for Farmers Insurance Open
Taylor Montgomery finishes in the Top 20 (+115)
It may be too easy and a cheat, but Montgomery has finished in the Top 15 in four of his last five races and was T11 at Torrey Pines last year. His driving ability plays well on this course and he has a solid short game to back that up, winning shots around the green and with the putter (0.8 per round) over the last 20 rounds. That’s enough for me to think that he has another Top 20.
Jon Rahm finishes in the Top 5 (+105)
I bet Jon Rahm twice to finish in the Top 5 in 2023. He won both tournaments. I still don’t see the value of an outright win at +450, but getting higher odds knowing he doesn’t have to win is too good not to do it again. He’s playing like the best player in the world right now and Rahm is now in a place where he won the US Open and he’s always loved it. He’s too beautiful not to pass up again.
Taylor Pendrith to finish in the Top 40 (+115)
We’ve seen Taylor Pendrith’s approach game deteriorate lately, he’s missed shots in his last 20 rounds. That said, on a course where the length of his tee should play in his favor, I think we’ll see his game improve and his putting should follow. Pendrith finished T16 here last year, so getting higher odds for just one Top 40 looks like a good run for the Canadian.
Unlikely pick to win the Farmers Insurance Open: Jhonattan Vegas (+11,000)
Jhonny Vegas is always a bit “unlikely” due to his lack of consistency, especially on the greens. However, his length from the start and solid approach game should put him in good shape at Torrey Pines. It’s based on his ability to capitalize from there that he’s the dark horse here.
Next : Family problems arise for Collin Morikawa at the worst possible time.
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